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A Look at the 2008 Cincinnati Reds- Starters

If you haven't noticed by now, my favorite team is the Reds. As a Reds fan, I kind of have to speculate as to their upcoming season. First off I'll look at each position, here goes:

Starting Pitching-

1. Ace Aaron Harang is among the most underrated and under appreciated players in a ll of baseball. He has quite a lengthy list of noteworthy achievements including:
* NL Wins Leader (2006)
* NL Strikeouts Leader (2006)
* NL Complete Games Leader (2006)
* 15 Wins Seasons: 2 (2006 & 2007)
* 200 Innings Pitched Seasons: 3 (2005-2007)
* 200 Strikeouts Seasons: 2 (2006 & 2007)

Harang finished with a lower WHIP than 5 Cy Young award vote-getters including Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb, and Brad Penny. With 231.7 IP, only Brandon Webb threw more innings than Harang.

2. Bronson Arroyo- Arroyo finished 7th in IP last year, adding to his reputation as a workhorse. He also started 34 games, only one less than Dontrelle Willis, who led the league. Apart from those stats, Arroyo's 2007 season was less than impressing. Look back however to 2006 when Arroyo finished 23rd in MVP voting, only one place lower than 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins. In 2006, Arroyo had an ERA of 3.29, good for 4th in the league. He also led the league in IP, throwing 3 complete games, and finished 6th in strikeouts.

The 3,4 and 5 spots are largely undecided and between the following pitchers:

Matt Belisle
Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez
Jeremy Affeldt
Johnny Cueto
Bobby Livingston
Tom Shearn

Here's my thoughts:

3. Matt Belisle- He's got the best shot of those 7 at starting. Belisle went 8-9 in 30 games last year with a 4.85 ERA and should be able to improve slightly upon those already acceptable numbers this year.

4 and 5 Spots:

These are the spots that are still pretty much up for grabs. As of Opening Day, I'd expect Reds super-prospect Homer Bailey to take up one of those spots. He's a top ten prospect and should develop into a strong talent.

Johnny Cueto will likely start in AAA, although many people believe he is going to be better than Homer Bailey. I personally believe Bailey will have a more successful career.

Bobby Livingstone is still recovering from a surgery.

My favorite off the bat for the 5 spot as of now is Edinson Volquez. This is the pitcher the Reds acquired from the Rangers in exchange for Josh Hamilton.

Jeremy Affeldt will likely be in the bullpen.

Roger Clemens. Who is he? Statistically, he’s the greatest pitcher of the modern era with 354 wins, 4,762 Strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.173 and an ERA+ of 143. Very impressive numbers without a doubt... But how real are they? Were these numbers bolstered by illegal performance enhancing substances? Personally, I believe so, as does the majority of baseball fans. Here’s why:

A. Statistics
Roger Clemens has amazing stats. No doubt about it... Well, so did guys like Tom Seaver... So how do I justify using something like stats as a basis for steroid use? Look at his stats after the age of 35. People don’t get better after the age of 35... physically it’s almost impossible, yet Clemens posted his highest career ERA and ERA+ at the age of 42. He also posted his career high in strikeouts with 292 at the age of 34. Clemens has 141 wins since 1998, when he turned 35. As far as comparing him to other pitchers, only Phil Niekro, Cy Young, Warren Spahn, Jack Quinn, and Charlie Hough have more career wins after turning 35. Clemens also has the HIGHEST career winning percentage after the age of 35 with a percentage of .681. He also rates 4th in both Hits per nine innings and strikeouts per nine innings after age 35. His ERA+, possibly the most important pitching stat is also 4th highest after age 35. As far as any of these stats go for pitchers BEFORE age 35, Clemens is only in the top 10 on strikeouts per nine innings where he ranks 7th.

So... What does this tell you? What it tells you is that Clemens numbers have stayed pretty constant despite his increase in age and the challenge involved in keeping his aging body healthy.

B. Half- Season “Vacations”
C’mon Roger... What are we supposed to believe you were doing during the first half of the last few seasons? The opportunity is great... Clemens could “retire”, use steroids throughout the offseason and then, while other players get tested during the regular season, he could juice up all he wanted... He’s “retired” and impervious to first half tests. Then he lays off the juice and miraculously decides to come back to baseball.

C. Teammates who Have Juiced
Sure, the fact that he’s had teammates who have juiced doesn’t mean he has juiced... but it does mean that he had lots of opportunity to obtain steroids.

A list of Roiding teammates, proven, implicated, accused:
Player Most Recent Connecting Team
Jason Grimsley 2000 New York Yankees
Mike Stanton 1996 Boston Red Sox
Mo Vaughn 1994 Boston Red Sox
Bobby Estalella 2001 New York Yankees
Benito Santiago 1997 Toronto Blue Jays
Jason Giambi 2007 New York Yankees
Andy Petitte 2007 New York Yankees
Jose Canseco 1996 Boston Red Sox

This is not a complete list of implicated players I might add...

D. Current and Past Behavior
Okay... this is just pure speculation... but man... Clemens has had some pretty crazy instances and behavior... I mean recording Brian McNamee on the phone without his knowledge seems pretty desperate to me... and implying that McNamee was in danger if he came near him.... c’mon! Recall his feud with Mike Piazza?


Hmmm... Makes me wonder if that wasn’t some class A roid rage... and just look at this:
Clemens never hesitated tossing SportsCenter anchors out the window...
And... I don’t think Clemens was just using PowerThirst if you know what I mean...

And look at Clemens body... He’s got the stereotypical juicer box head and disproportional body...

You know what? I’m gonna make a fortune and sell Viagra to Roger Clemens... wish me luck.